Saturday, November 25, 2017

The Three Most Important Things in Healthcare

  1. Living in a developed country with good food, water, and sanitation.
  2. A tie between lifestyle (nutrition and exercise) and heredity (picking the right parents).
  3. Quality of healthcare. That's right, third.
  4. Some unsung UW-Madison nursing professor

Charlatans Crank out a Tax Cut

Hint: It's not what they said.
Myth #1: The Tax Cuts Will Pay for Themselves
The nonpartisan Tax Policy Center concluded that the $1.5 trillion in tax cuts proposed in the House plan would not fully pay for themselves.

Myth #2: This is a Middle-Class Tax Cut
Myth #2: This is a Middle-Class Tax Cut
% with a tax increase, 2019 % with a tax increase, 2027
Income level House Senate House Senate
$0 - $25,000 2% 1.5% 14% 32.4%
$25,000 - $48,600 6% 5.1% 25% 56%
$48,600 - $86,100 9% 10.8% 30% 65.6%
$86,100 - $149,400 11% 16% 28% 58.9%
$149,400 - $216,800 13% 17.7% 37% 54%
$216,800 - $307,900 16% 20.4% 47% 41.6%
$307,900 - $732,800 6% 7.1% 26% 35.4%
> $732,800 20% 14% 33% 16.8%
The Tax Policy Center's first distributional analysis of the Senate plan said it offers tax cuts to the middle class in 2018, but by 2027, the only winners are the richest 1%. The House tax increases are more evenly distributed.

Myth #3: The Richest 1% Don't Benefit Under the GOP Plan
Myth #3: The Richest 1% Don't Benefit Under the GOP Plan
Increase in after-tax income, 2019 Increase in after-tax income, 2027
Income level House Senate House Senate
$0 - $25,000 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% -0.1%
$25,000 - $48,600 0.9% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0%
$48,600 - $86,100 1.5% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%
$86,100 - $149,400 1.7% 1.4% 0.6% 0.1%
$149,400 - $216,800 1.6% 1.5% 0.3% 0.2%
$216,800 - $307,900 1.3% 1.5% 0.1% 0.2%
$307,900 - $732,800 2.0% 3.5% 1.2% 0.5%
> $732,800 2.5% 2.2% 2.2% 1.4%

Monday, November 20, 2017

Investing for Retirement

I spent more than half my working life saving in whatever guaranteed pension plan my employer offered, but a change to a 401(k) plan finally forced me into making my own investment decisions. After a lot of reading and some false starts, I retired with these assets:
• A mix of no-load index mutual funds: total U.S. stock, total international stock, and total U.S. bonds.
• A home.
• Eventually, if the creeks don't rise, Social Security.
The index fund portfolio is low-cost, low-maintenance, broadly diversified, and guaranteed not to beat, but only own, the market. The rest of the secret is saving as much as you can, compound interest, and time. So start now.


Business Insider

Since returns are guaranteed by "time in the market, not timing the market" you have to buy and hold the funds. And I don't mean just don't day trade; I mean don't sell over your entire working life. Now you see why you have to own the entire market, and not pick and choose. (The exception is rebalancing when the mix has changed significantly, which is another topic.)

Medicare Application

One of those "life events" we all look forward to. Just reviewing the rules has given me a headache.

If like me you will not automatically be enrolled in Medicare by receiving Social Security benefits at least four months before age 65, you must apply for Medicare yourself during the initial enrollment period of three months before to four months after the month you turn 65. (You might want to read the last sentence, and this entire post, more slowly.)

Medicare recommends and some employers require that you sign up for the premium-free hospital/in-patient insurance (Part A) during this initial period. If you aren't continuing employer group coverage for medical/out-patient insurance (Part B), you should also sign up to pay the monthly Part B premium at this time, to avoid a permanent penalty surcharge later.

You can't sign up for private Medicare insurance (Medigap, Part C Medicare Advantage, or a Part D drug plan) until you're approved for original Medicare Parts A and B, so that's another post.

You can submit your application up to 3 months before the month you turn 65. Application options are online (recommended by Social Security), phone (1-800-772-1213 or TTY 1-800-325-0778), or in-person at your local office (appointments are recommended).

There's a wealth of information about Medicare available online, just never in one place. You might want to look at (or even study carefully) the Medicare & You handbook. But here's something I couldn't find: the actual schedule for my application process. I have no reason to think it's not typical.

Medicare Application Timeline
TimeEvents
--Submit Medicare application
1 weekA Medicare Award email (without Medicare number) is sent if you provided an email address.
2 weeksA Medicare Notice of Award letter (without Medicare number or card) is sent.
3 weeksA Medicare card with number and suffix is sent. The Medicare number will permit
  1. application(s) for private Medigap supplement, Medicare Advantage or other Part C health plan, and Drug (Part D) insurance,
  2. registration for a MyMedicare.gov account, and
  3. mailing of the Authorization Agreement for Preauthorized Payments form (SF-5510) for automatic ACH payments if desired.
2 monthsA first Medicare Part B bill for 3 months is sent, since ACH processing is not yet completed.
3 monthsMedicare coverage starts. The 6-month open enrollment period for private supplemental insurance (Medigap, Medicare Advantage or other Part C plans, and drugs) starts the month you're 65 and enrolled in Medicare Part B (When Can I Buy Medigap?).
5 monthsApproved Preauthorized Payments notice is sent.
5 months
1 week
First monthly ACH payment is made. A monthly Social Security paper statement noting "This is not a bill" is sent before each ACH payment.

Sunday, November 19, 2017

Parsing an Incident Report

The Madison Police Department posts online what they call "A Selection of Noteworthy Incident Reports":

Incidents listed are selected by the Officer In Charge of each shift that may have significant public interest. Incidents listed are not inclusive of all incidents. 
This is the report for Case #2017-393080. It begins routinely:
Incident Type  Traffic Incident
Incident Date  10/30/2017 - 2:59 PM
Nothing too exciting so far. Just traffic.
Address  500 block S. Midvale Blvd.
Here's the Google street view:

A residential neighborhood, but a popular, divided street. 30 mph speed limit. Starting to see commuter traffic that time of day, from University Avenue at Hilldale to the Beltline or Verona Road.
Apartments across the street, getting a little denser.
Oh, wait. Is that Midvale Elementary School?

Saturday, November 18, 2017

Citizenship

You would have addressed a letter to "E. Rushmore Coglan, Esq., the Earth, Solar System, the Universe," and have mailed it, feeling confident that it would be delivered to him.
― O. Henry, "A Cosmopolitan in a Cafe" in The Four Million, 1903

Frequently consider the connection of all things in the Universe. . . . We should not say ‘I am an Athenian’ or ‘I am a Roman’ but ‘I am a Citizen of the Universe'.”
― Marcus Aurelius, Meditations, 161 to 180 AD

The first person to have said such a thing was Diogenes the Cynic (4th Century BCE). Diogenes Laertius (3rd Century AD) said of Diogenes the Cynic, “When asked where he was from, he said 'I am a world-citizen.'”
― SENTENTIAE ANTIQUAE, JUNE 4, 2016

Oh, we come on the ship
  they call the Mayflower,
We come on the ship
  that sailed the moon,
We come in the age’s
  most uncertain hour,
And sing an American tune.

Paul Simon, American Tune, 1973
World Trade Center Flag Raising
Thomas E. Franklin, 9/11/2001
The Record (Bergen County, NJ)

Friday, November 17, 2017

Madison Halloween and Fake YouTube Videos

The State Street Halloween Party, renamed Freakfest in 2006, drew crowds of up to 120,000 from several states in 2001 to 2005, with up to 566 arrests.1 Injuries during the event included anonymous razor cutting of attendees, who only later realized they needed attention.

However, some of the reputation has come from false videos claiming to show Halloween on State Street, like this one:


Someone named "voglbop" posted this to YouTube on August 26, 2014. He titled it "Madison Wisconsin Halloween riot footage", and noted that it was
"Footage of the first Halloween riot at Madison, Wisconsin. At 0:13 Madison art cow statue can be seen. At 0:22 Mendota Police Officer Mike Johnson takes a brick to the head. At 2:20 the University of Minnesota’s students are spotted waving their school's color flag."
No year is mentioned. Some of the comments describe the video:

Tuesday, July 11, 2017

Tax Cuts and Kansas

The [Governor] Brownback plan aimed to boost the Kansas economy, but instead led to sluggish growth, lower than expected revenues and brutal cuts to government programs.
— William G. Gale, "The Kansas tax cut experiment," Brookings Institution, July 11, 2017

In a 2014 Kansas City Star opinion piece entitled "What's the matter with Paul Krugman?" [economist Stephen] Moore responded to Krugman's opinion piece entitled "Charlatans, Cranks and Kansas." In his piece, Moore claimed that job creation had been superior in low-taxation states during the five years following the recession ending June 2009. After substantial factual errors were uncovered in Moore's opinion piece, the Kansas City Star indicated that it would no longer print Moore's work without "thorough fact checking."
Wikipedia, retrieved November 23, 2017

. . . the Brownback tax cuts didn’t emerge out of thin air. They closely followed a blueprint laid out by the American Legislative Exchange Council, or ALEC, which has also supported a series of economic studies purporting to show that tax cuts for corporations and the wealthy will promote rapid economic growth. The studies are embarrassingly bad, and the council’s Board of Scholars — which includes both Mr. Laffer and Stephen Moore of the Heritage Foundation — doesn’t exactly shout credibility. But it’s good enough for anti-government work.
— Paul Krugman, "Charlatans, Cranks and Kansas," New York Times, June 29, 2014

Monday, January 4, 2016

Adjusting the Race Lottery

Remember that you are an Englishman, and have consequently won first prize in the lottery of life.
― Cecil Rhodes, 1853-1902

It's easy to see the benefits of being born in America and not a third world country. There are also benefits to being born white in America. If you've never had that thought, then that's as good a description of white privilege as any.
― On my reading Between the World and Me by Ta-Nehisi Coates, 2016

I strongly support diversity of all kinds, including racial diversity in higher education. The method used by the University of Michigan to achieve this goal is fundamentally flawed and amounts to a quota system that unfairly rewards or penalizes prospective students solely on their race.
— President George W. Bush, speaking against affirmative action in college admissions, January 16, 2003

Using just the kind of point system that Mr. Bush now derides as quotas, Andover gave George three extra points on a 20-point scale for being the son of an alumnus. That's a higher percentage than a Michigan applicant gets for being black.
— Nicholas D. Kristof, The New York Times, discussing George W. Bush's admission to Phillips Academy, Andover, Massachusetts, January 24, 2003

His SAT's of 566 verbal and 640 math were far below the median scores for students in his Yale class: 668 verbal and 718 math. But in the end, having a Yale pedigree, a grandfather on the Yale board and a Texas background bounced him into the entering class. . . How can we evaluate the justice of preferences that favor blacks without considering preferences that benefit whites (legacy), athletes (football players), the wealthy (children of donors), and farm kids from Oregon (me when I applied to colleges).
— Nicholas D. Kristof, The New York Times, discussing George W. Bush's admission to Yale, January 24, 2003

Jim Hightower’s great line about Bush, “Born on third and thinks he hit a triple,” is still painfully true. Bush has simply
never acknowledged that not only was he born with a silver spoon in his mouth — he’s been eating off it ever since.
MOLLY IVINS, "The Uncompassionate Conservative," Mother Jones, NOVEMBER/DECEMBER 2003

Wednesday, June 4, 2014

Inequality and Productivity

The genius of capitalism



"Raising America’s Pay - Why It’s Our Central Economic Policy Challenge," Josh Bivens, Elise Gould, Lawrence Mishel, and Heidi Shierholz, Economic Policy Institute, June 4, 2014

I look at the chart above and see my working career, 1973 - 2015.

Two decades ago, CEO's were paid about 40 times more than the average hourly employee; now they make more than 500 times the wage of the average hourly employee. The Marine Corps commandant is paid just 13 times more than a new private in boot camp.
Robert Hemsley, paper mill worker, July 20, 2002

[From 1970 to 1999], according to Fortune magazine, the average real annual compensation of the top 100 C.E.O.'s went from $1.3 million - 39 times the pay of an average worker - to $37.5 million, more than 1,000 times the pay of ordinary workers.
Paul Krugman, The New York Times, October 20, 2002

Tuesday, November 12, 2013

Life, for a Limited Time Only

All my life, I've always wanted to be somebody, but I see now I should have been more specific.
― Lily Tomlin and Jane Wagner, The Search for Signs of Intelligent Life in the Universe (1985)

Life
Available for a limited time only.
Limit one per person.
Subject to change without notice.
Provided as is.
Enjoy!
― "Sometimes Why?" on The Second Album of Latyrx, NPR All Things Considered, November 12, 2013


Friday, July 12, 2013

Quotes on Madison



This is Madison. —Mayor-for-Life Paul Soglin, July 12, 2013. Actually, every third Mayor since 1973.

 

The Earth as seen from Madison, Wisconsin
— Caption on a postcard c. 1977

30 square miles surrounded by reality
— Wisconsin Governor Lee Dreyfus in 1978.1 The land area was 77 sq mi by 2010, with an additional 17 sq mi of water.2,3

She came from Madison, Wisconsin, which should have made us stop, look and listen.
— J. Edgar Hoover, referring to Debra Sweet in a memo to Richard M. Nixon, December 3, 1970. Sweet questioned Nixon on the Vietnam war during an award ceremony at the White House. Hoover's memo was classified until 1999.4



© rock sound

It's like being trapped in the movie Fargo without the funny bits.
— Shirley Manson of Garbage, describing life in Madison, October 1997.7 Shirley is from Earth, and the other band members are from Madison.

I'm pro-life jacket, and I boat
Isthmus Annual Manual (2001)5

A drinking town with a football problem
Isthmus Annual Manual (2002).6 In 2002 Barry Alvarez and the Badgers were 2-6 in the Big 10.





References
1Isthmus Annual Manual, Madison, WI, No. 22, 2002 - 2003, pg. 31
2Mayor proposes city motto: '77 Square Miles Surrounded by Reality', DEAN MOSIMAN, Wisconsin State Journal, July 12, 2013
3Madison, Wisconsin Wikipedia, accessed 11/17/17
4"Anti-War Protesters Are At It Again," Doug Moe, The Capital Times, Madison, WI, September 21-22, 2002, pg. 2A
5Isthmus Annual Manual, Madison, WI, No. 21, 2001 - 2002, pg. 35
6Isthmus Annual Manual, Madison, WI, No. 22, 2002 - 2003, pg. 34
7In the Studio, Julia Chaplin, Spin, October 1997, pg. 76

Mastodon

Sunday, May 1, 2005

Enron and the Genius of Capitalism


I want to assure you that I have never felt better about the prospects for the company.
Enron CEO Ken Lay email to Enron employees worldwide, August 14, 2001

Enron used its political clout to create what one of its own executives called a "regulatory black hole" in which it could operate freely.
Paul Krugman, The New York Times, December 11, 2001

Companies come and go. It's part of the genius of capitalism.
Paul O'Neill, Treasury secretary, on the collapse of Enron, January 18, 2002

The feeding frenzy is pretty much over.
Senator Phil Gramm, Republican - Texas, on the defeat of new controls on corporate and accounting conduct, June 10, 2002. Gramm's wife, Wendy, resigned from Enron's board last week.

Sunday, March 27, 2005

Jefferson on a Living Constitution

I am not an advocate for frequent changes in laws and Constitutions, but laws must and institutions must go hand in hand with the progress of the human mind. As that becomes more developed, more enlightened, as new discoveries are made, new truths discovered and manners and opinions change, with the change of circumstances, institutions must advance also to keep pace with the times. We might as well require a man to wear still the coat which fitted him when a boy as civilized society to remain ever under the regiment of their barbarous ancestors.
Thomas Jefferson, as inscribed on the Jefferson Memorial

Though I have many reservations about Thomas Jefferson, I much prefer his 18th-century view of constitutional interpretation to that with which Justice Scalia would like to saddle us in the 21st.
Roger Wilkins, professor of history at George Mason University

Thursday, June 19, 2003

Political Science

Climate change has global consequences for human health and the environment.
Example of changes to an Environmental Protection Agency report made by White House officials under George W. Bush, June 19, 2003

Political staff are becoming increasingly bold in forcing agency officials to endorse junk science.
Jeremy Symons, a climate policy expert at the National Wildlife Federation, June 19, 2003

Evolution is back in Kansas.
Headline after the Kansas Board of Education reversed its 1999 vote, February 21, 2001. Two other fundamental scientific theories, cosmology (the origin and fate of the universe), and plate tectonics (the movement of continents), were also restored to the classroom.


In 1999 Darwinists launched a vicious campaign of threats and ridicule when the Kansas State Board of Education refused to require that Darwinism be taught as the sole explanation for life's diversity. (They did not ban the teaching of evolution, as the media widely misreported.) Sadly, those tactics paid off the following year, when state elections shifted the board's membership enough to reimpose the old orthodoxy.
Mark Hartwig, Focus on the Family magazine, 2002. The theories of evolution and intelligent design are treated as matters of religious orthodoxy and opinion.


On the issue of evolution, the verdict is still out on how God created the Earth.
George W. Bush, 2002

Can Science Conquer Kansas?
Headline after the Kansas Board of Education voted 6-4 on August 11 to make evolution a local option in the state's 304 school districts, September 27, 1999

Kansas just embarrassed itself on the national stage.
Dr. John Staver, chairman of a 27-member committee of scientists and teachers that had worked for more than a year on questions of science and religion in the Kansas public schools, August 11, 1999

Tuesday, March 11, 2003

Freedom of Speech

Exceptions to majority rule


In 1912, feminist Margaret Sanger was arrested for giving a lecture on birth control. Trade union meetings were banned. Peaceful protesters opposing U. S. entry into World War I were jailed. In 1923, author Upton Sinclair was arrested for trying to read the text of the First Amendment at a union rally. It was in response to the excesses of this period that the ACLU was founded in 1920.
Freedom of Expression, ACLU Position Paper

Stephen Downs, 61, of Selkirk, New York was arrested Monday on a trespassing charge after wearing a T-shirt saying "Peace on Earth" and "Give Peace a Chance" in Crossgates Mall.
Associated Press, March 11, 2003
Wal-Marts are private property. This means that Wal-Mart has the right to ask you to leave their premises if they do not approve of your behavior. The situation is trickier on sidewalks and parking lots owned by Wal-Mart. Though these spaces are technically private, some courts will still protect your free speech rights there because traditionally they are "public" forums. The Supreme Court explicitly left this issue up to the states in Pruneyard Shopping Center v. Robins, after which states have differed in their conclusions, most falling on the side of protecting property.

The state decisions have focused on large shopping malls that have taken over the traditional functions of a downtown's Main Street. The states of Alaska, California, Colorado, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Oregon have all made rulings that favor protecting free speech on these types of private property. Arizona, Connecticut, Georgia, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Washington, and Wisconsin courts have all ruled against protecting speech in these situations. Most states are still undecided on this issue, but lean towards the majority view that speech is not protected on private property.
― National Labor Committee In Support Of Worker And Human Rights, March 9, 2003
"You mean, it's the content of my sign?" I asked him. He said, "Yes, sir, it's the content of your sign."
Brett Bursey, before his arrest by airport police in Columbia, SC, October, 2002.
Bursey was told he was trespassing, but was later charged by United States Attorney J. Strom Thurmond, Jr. for being in an area restricted by the Secret Service to protect President Bush. Bush supporters in the area were not arrested.

Friday, February 28, 2003

Patriotic Ceremonies

Exceptions to majority rule



Students pledging to the flag with the Bellamy salute, March
1941

No official, high or petty, can prescribe what shall be orthodox in politics, nationalism, religion, or other matters of opinion. . . To believe that patriotism will not flourish if patriotic ceremonies are voluntary and spontaneous instead of a compulsory routine is to make an unflattering estimate of the appeal of our institutions to free minds.
U.S. Supreme Court Justice Robert Jackson, in West Virginia State Board of Education v. Barnette, 1943, striking down a requirement that school children salute the flag.

One of the things that the flag stands for, the Court said that day, was the right not to salute it.
— Ira Glasser, 1991. The Supreme Court decision was made in the middle of World War II.


Iwo Jima Flag Raising, Joe Rosenthal, 2/23/45, ©1945 Associated Press
World Trade Center Flag Raising, Thomas E. Franklin, 9/11/01, ©2001 The Record (Bergen County, NJ)

Two patriotic moments. Voluntary, spontaneous, not routine.

Monday, February 10, 2003

Not Getting Our Money's Worth

More than one-quarter of Medicare dollars are spent in the last year of life.
Todd A. Borus, MD, August 13, 2002

The U.S. has the longest life expectancy of any country in the world.
Robert Novak on "Crossfire", October 20, 2002

Life expectancy in the U.S. is well below that in Canada, Japan, and every major nation in Western Europe. On average, we can expect lives a bit shorter than those of Greeks, a bit longer than those of Portuguese.
Paul Krugman, The New York Times, October 20, 2002

Doesn't our high and rising national wealth translate into a high standard of living - including good medical care - for all Americans? Well, no. Although America has higher per capita income than other advanced countries, it turns out that that's mainly because our rich are much richer.
Paul Krugman, The New York Times, October 20, 2002

The U.S. Congress is preoccupied with terrorist threats. But, to my mind, the nursing shortage is a colossal flaw in the American health care system, a life-and-death issue.
Sheela Murthy, a Washington immigration lawyer advising nurse recruiters and hospitals hiring foreign nurses, February 10, 2003. The federal Health Resources and Services Administration projects that vacant nursing positions, now totaling more than 110,000, will exceed 700,000 by 2020.

Most of the 40 million Americans who lack health insurance pay for our political leaders' health insurance premiums through taxes. Since our leaders as a group have universal health care, why can't they in return find a way to provide that same benefit for us?
Philip Pollner, MD, chairman of the National Leadership Coalition for Health Care, August 12, 2002

Tuesday, January 21, 2003

Taxes and One Super-Rich Guy

The tax relief I propose will give 23 million small-business owners an average tax cut of $2,042 this year.
George W. Bush radio address, January 18, 2003

Most small businesses will get a tax break of less than $500; about 5 million of those 23 million small businesses will get no break at all. The average is more than $2,000 only because a small number of very wealthy businessmen will get huge tax cuts.
Paul Krugman, The New York Times, January 21, 2003, citing the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities
A liberal and a conservative were sitting in a bar. Then Bill Gates walked in. "Hey, we're rich!" shouted the conservative. "The average person in this bar is now worth more than a billion!" "That's silly," replied the liberal. "Bill Gates raises the average, but that doesn't make you or me any richer." "Hah!" said the conservative, "I see you're still practicing the discredited politics of class warfare."
Paul Krugman, The New York Times, January 21, 2003

Monday, January 13, 2003

Faith-Based Government

Out of fear, ignorance and occasional bigotry, faith-based groups have been prohibited from competing for federal funding on a level playing field with secular groups.
Attorney General John Ashcroft, White House Faith-Based and Community Initiatives Conference, January 13, 2003. President Bush issued an executive order last month prohibiting federal agencies from discriminating against religious organizations in awarding grants for social work, but religious groups that become federal contractors may still discriminate in hiring on the basis of religious beliefs.

In 1996, then-U.S. Senator John Ashcroft steered through Congress so-called “charitable choice” provisions intended to allow religious groups to garner federal funding without proper civil rights and civil liberties safeguards. Ashcroft, an ally of the Religious Right, wanted faith-based providers to be able to hire and fire based on religion, even in programs supported by taxpayer dollars.
The 'Faith-Based' Initiative, Americans United for Separation of Church and State, 2017