Thursday, November 30, 2017

Minnesota is Open for Business

Forbes has published its "2017 Best States For Business" rankings, and Wisconsin was 33rd. This is after 6 years for Republican Scott Walker and Republican majorities in both the Assembly and State Senate.

The Forbes Best States for Business profile of Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, and Illinois provides some related data. More details of the factors used in the categories can be found at Methodology.

Forbes 2017 Best States For Business
Rank State Business
Costs
Labor
Supply
Regulatory
Environment
Economic
Climate
Growth
Prospects
Quality
of Life
Population
#1 North Carolina 2 11 9 18 10 16 10,146,800
#13 Minnesota 37 14 22 13 22 1 5,520,000
#28 Michigan 35 47 16 11 26 17 9,928,300
#33 Wisconsin 38 39 24 19 32 9 5,778,700
#37 Illinois 30 36 40 28 35 15 12,801,500
#50 West Virginia 15 50 50 48 50 43 1,831,100

Wisconsin was between Michigan (28) and Illinois (37), but well below Minnesota (13). Wisconsin's category rankings were in the top half for Quality of Life (9), Economic Climate (19), and Regulatory Environment (24). They were in the bottom half for Growth Prospects (32), Business Costs (38), Labor Supply (39).

I keep wondering how Minnesota did so much better than Wisconsin, since we still have the Paul Bunyan axe. As we look at the details, remember that a lower or poorer ranking is a higher number.

The Business Costs ranking is lower than any nearby states. This category considers labor and energy costs and taxes. The Forbes Wisconsin (38) profile showed the cost of doing business as 2.8% above the national average. Minnesota's (37) was 3.2% above average, and Illinois (30) was 1.7% below the national average.

The Labor Supply ranking is lower than any but Michigan. This considers college or high school grade levels, net migration, projected population growth, union workforce, and population between 25 and 34. According to a Forbes source, “Finding highly-educated millennials is top of mind for all of our clients.” Wisconsin's (39) college attainment was 28.4% and net migration (2016) was -4,400. Minnesota (14) was 34.7% and +11,900. More people are going to college in Minnesota, and voting for it with their feet.

The low Labor Supply ranking may be a reason for this Associated Press headline on November 29: "Walker announces national ad campaign to attract workers". Walker is asking for $7 million for the ads and says the need for workers is statewide.

Regulatory Environment is worse than any but Illinois. This considers a long list: labor regulations, health-insurance coverage mandates, occupational licensing, the tort system, right-to-work laws, tax incentives, economic development efforts, Moody’s state bond rating, transportation infrastructure including air, highway, and rail; laws against employment discrimination based on sexual and/or gender identity, lawsuit environment, and state fiscal health. Wisconsin (24) has a union workforce of 8.1%, while Michigan's (16) is 14.4%. Both Wisconsin and Michigan are Right to Work States, and both had a Moody's Bond Rating of Aa1.

Economic Climate is again only better than Illinois. This considers actual job, income, and gross state product growth; average unemployment, and the number of large public and private companies headquartered in the state. Wisconsin's (19) job growth in 2017 was 0.9% for a gross state product of $306 billion and unemployment of 3.4%. Michigan's (11) was 1.5% growth for a $467 billion GSP and 4.3% unemployment.

Growth Prospects is down with Illinois; I think I see a trend. This category includes forecasts of job, income and gross state product growth; venture capital investments, and startup activity. Wisconsin's (32) projected annual job growth was 0.7%, while Minnesota's (22) was 1.1%

We know we shine in Quality of Life, but why is Minnesota so much better? The factors in this index are cost of living, school test performance, crime rates, mean temperature, number of top-ranked four-year colleges, culture and recreational opportunities, commute times, air pollution, and number of primary care physicians.

This compares the partial quality of life factors published by Forbes for the two states:
Quality of Life Data

Wisconsin (9) Minnesota (1)
Median Home Price $190,000 $219,800
Home Price Change 6.3% 6.1%
Housing Affordability1 209 201
Foreclosures 0.5% 0.4%
Poverty Rate 11.8% 9.9%
Crimes per 100,000 2,239 2,376
Mean Temperature 42 40
Average Commute 29 minutes 23 minutes
1 whether a family earning the median income can afford the median-priced home. A value of 120 indicates a typical household has 20% more income than needed for the typical home.
These factors look to be a wash. That leaves school testing, top-ranked four-year colleges, culture and recreational opportunities, air pollution, and primary care physicians to be examined. Maybe a future post.

Forbes says that this year "Wisconsin's overall rank fell six spots in FORBES' Best States for Business. The state was the only one to drop in each of our six main categories." Here's a list of items we should ask Governor Walker and our Republican legislators about before the next election:

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