Minnesota is Open for Business

Forbes has published its "2017 Best States For Business" rankings, and Wisconsin was 33rd. This is after 6 years for Republican Scott Walker and Republican majorities in both the Assembly and State Senate.

The Forbes Best States for Business profile of Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, and Illinois provides some related data. More details of the factors used in the categories can be found at Methodology.

Forbes 2017 Best States For Business
Rank	State	Business Costs	Labor Supply	Regulatory Environment	Economic Climate	Growth Prospects	Quality of Life	Population
#1	North Carolina	2	11	9	18	10	16	10,146,800
#13	Minnesota	37	14	22	13	22	1	5,520,000
#28	Michigan	35	47	16	11	26	17	9,928,300
#33	Wisconsin	38	39	24	19	32	9	5,778,700
#37	Illinois	30	36	40	28	35	15	12,801,500
#50	West Virginia	15	50	50	48	50	43	1,831,100

Wisconsin was between Michigan (28) and Illinois (37), but well below Minnesota (13). Wisconsin's category rankings were in the top half for Quality of Life (9), Economic Climate (19), and Regulatory Environment (24). They were in the bottom half for Growth Prospects (32), Business Costs (38), Labor Supply (39).

I keep wondering how Minnesota did so much better than Wisconsin, since we still have the Paul Bunyan axe. As we look at the details, remember that a lower or poorer ranking is a higher number.

The Business Costs ranking is lower than any nearby states. This category considers labor and energy costs and taxes. The Forbes Wisconsin (38) profile showed the cost of doing business as 2.8% above the national average. Minnesota's (37) was 3.2% above average, and Illinois (30) was 1.7% below the national average.

The Labor Supply ranking is lower than any but Michigan. This considers college or high school grade levels, net migration, projected population growth, union workforce, and population between 25 and 34. According to a Forbes source, “Finding highly-educated millennials is top of mind for all of our clients.” Wisconsin's (39) college attainment was 28.4% and net migration (2016) was -4,400. Minnesota (14) was 34.7% and +11,900. More people are going to college in Minnesota, and voting for it with their feet.

The low Labor Supply ranking may be a reason for this Associated Press headline on November 29: "Walker announces national ad campaign to attract workers". Walker is asking for $7 million for the ads and says the need for workers is statewide.

We're Not Talking Communism Here

This post has updated information on tax burden by income.

Now, setting the scene for our timeless drama:

Taxes are what we pay for civilized society
— Oliver Wendell Holmes, Jr., Compania General De Tabacos De Filipinas v. Collector of Internal Revenue, November 21, 1927

The income tax is paid almost entirely by the well-to-do.
— R. Glenn Hubbard, Chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. According to the Internal Revenue Service, the top 1 percent of taxpayers pay 37 percent of all federal income taxes.

A complete accounting shows that the wealthiest 1 percent of taxpayers earned about 18 percent of all income in 2001 and paid about 25 percent of all federal taxes. It's a little progressive, but we're not talking about communism here.
— Robert S. McIntyre, director of Citizens for Tax Justice, after including Social Security and Medicare payroll taxes, and comparing income to total federal tax.

— Edmund L. Andrews, "Fight Looms Over Who Bears the Biggest Tax Burden," New York Times, January 14, 2003

It's an income tax, not a head tax. And shouldn't we consider all taxes, and disposable income? In another article,

The chart below is based on 2017 federal tax estimates from the Tax Policy Center, which employs alumni of Republican and Democratic administrations; and 2015 state and local tax estimates (the most recent available) from the liberal Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy:

When you look at all taxes combined (federal income, state income, payroll, sales, property, corporate income, etc.) the

Quotes are like Poems

Quotes are like poems,
the way they can capture
an idea or essence
even though prose.
That's why I collect them.

The Three Most Important Things in Healthcare

1. Living in a developed country with good food, water, and sanitation.
2. A tie between lifestyle (nutrition and exercise) and heredity (picking the right parents).
3. Quality of healthcare. That's right, third.
― Some unsung UW-Madison nursing professor

Charlatans Crank out a Tax Cut

Hint: It's not what they said.

Myth #1: The Tax Cuts Will Pay for Themselves
The nonpartisan Tax Policy Center concluded that the $1.5 trillion in tax cuts proposed in the House plan would not fully pay for themselves.

Myth #2: This is a Middle-Class Tax Cut

Myth #2: This is a Middle-Class Tax Cut
	% with a tax increase, 2019		% with a tax increase, 2027
Income level	House	Senate	House	Senate
$0 - $25,000	2%	1.5%	14%	32.4%
$25,000 - $48,600	6%	5.1%	25%	56%
$48,600 - $86,100	9%	10.8%	30%	65.6%
$86,100 - $149,400	11%	16%	28%	58.9%
$149,400 - $216,800	13%	17.7%	37%	54%
$216,800 - $307,900	16%	20.4%	47%	41.6%
$307,900 - $732,800	6%	7.1%	26%	35.4%
> $732,800	20%	14%	33%	16.8%

The Tax Policy Center's first distributional analysis of the Senate plan said it offers tax cuts to the middle class in 2018, but by 2027, the only winners are the richest 1%. The House tax increases are more evenly distributed.

Myth #3: The Richest 1% Don't Benefit Under the GOP Plan

Myth #3: The Richest 1% Don't Benefit Under the GOP Plan
	Increase in after-tax income, 2019		Increase in after-tax income, 2027
Income level	House	Senate	House	Senate
$0 - $25,000	0.4%	0.3%	0.0%	-0.1%
$25,000 - $48,600	0.9%	0.9%	0.1%	0.0%
$48,600 - $86,100	1.5%	1.4%	0.4%	0.1%
$86,100 - $149,400	1.7%	1.4%	0.6%	0.1%
$149,400 - $216,800	1.6%	1.5%	0.3%	0.2%
$216,800 - $307,900	1.3%	1.5%	0.1%	0.2%
$307,900 - $732,800	2.0%	3.5%	1.2%	0.5%
> $732,800	2.5%	2.2%	2.2%	1.4%

Investing for Retirement

I spent more than half my working life saving in whatever guaranteed pension plan my employer offered, but a change to a 401(k) plan finally forced me into making my own investment decisions. After a lot of reading and some false starts, I retired with these assets:

• A mix of no-load index mutual funds: total U.S. stock, total international stock, and total U.S. bonds.
• A home.
• Eventually, if the creeks don't rise, Social Security.

The index fund portfolio is low-cost, low-maintenance, broadly diversified, and guaranteed not to beat, but only own, the market. The rest of the secret is saving as much as you can, compound interest, and time. So start now.

Business Insider

Since returns are guaranteed by "time in the market, not timing the market" you have to buy and hold the funds. And I don't mean just don't day trade; I mean don't sell over your entire working life. Now you see why you have to own the entire market, and not pick and choose. (The exception is rebalancing when the mix has changed significantly, which is another topic.)

Medicare Application

One of those "life events" we all look forward to. Just reviewing the rules has given me a headache.

If like me you will not automatically be enrolled in Medicare by receiving Social Security benefits at least four months before age 65, you must apply for Medicare yourself during the initial enrollment period of three months before to four months after the month you turn 65. (You might want to read the last sentence, and this entire post, more slowly.)

Medicare recommends and some employers require that you sign up for the premium-free hospital/in-patient insurance (Part A) during this initial period. If you aren't continuing employer group coverage for medical/out-patient insurance (Part B), you should also sign up to pay the monthly Part B premium at this time, to avoid a permanent penalty surcharge later.

You can't sign up for private Medicare insurance (Medigap, Part C Medicare Advantage, or a Part D drug plan) until you're approved for original Medicare Parts A and B, so that's another post.

You can submit your application up to 3 months before the month you turn 65. Application options are online (recommended by Social Security), phone (1-800-772-1213 or TTY 1-800-325-0778), or in-person at your local office (appointments are recommended).

There's a wealth of information about Medicare available online, just never in one place. You might want to look at (or even study carefully) the Medicare & You handbook. But here's something I couldn't find: the actual schedule for my application process. I have no reason to think it's not typical.

Medicare Application Timeline
Time	Events
--	Submit Medicare application
1 week	A Medicare Award email (without Medicare number) is sent if you provided an email address.
2 weeks	A Medicare Notice of Award letter (without Medicare number or card) is sent.
3 weeks	A Medicare card with number and suffix is sent. The Medicare number will permit application(s) for private Medigap supplement, Medicare Advantage or other Part C health plan, and Drug (Part D) insurance, registration for a MyMedicare.gov account, and mailing of the Authorization Agreement for Preauthorized Payments form (SF-5510) for automatic ACH payments if desired.
2 months	A first Medicare Part B bill for 3 months is sent, since ACH processing is not yet completed.
3 months	Medicare coverage starts. The 6-month open enrollment period for private supplemental insurance (Medigap, Medicare Advantage or other Part C plans, and drugs) starts the month you're 65 and enrolled in Medicare Part B (When Can I Buy Medigap?).
5 months	Approved Preauthorized Payments notice is sent.
5 months 1 week	First monthly ACH payment is made. A monthly Social Security paper statement noting "This is not a bill" is sent before each ACH payment.

Parsing an Incident Report

The Madison Police Department posts online what they call "A Selection of Noteworthy Incident Reports":

Incidents listed are selected by the Officer In Charge of each shift that may have significant public interest. Incidents listed are not inclusive of all incidents. 

This is the report for Case #2017-393080. It begins routinely:

Incident Type  Traffic Incident
Incident Date  10/30/2017 - 2:59 PM

Nothing too exciting so far. Just traffic.

Address  500 block S. Midvale Blvd.

Here's the Google street view:

A residential neighborhood, but a popular, divided street. 30 mph speed limit. Starting to see commuter traffic that time of day, from University Avenue at Hilldale to the Beltline or Verona Road.

Apartments across the street, getting a little denser.

Oh, wait. Is that Midvale Elementary School?

Citizenship

You would have addressed a letter to "E. Rushmore Coglan, Esq., the Earth, Solar System, the Universe," and have mailed it, feeling confident that it would be delivered to him.
― O. Henry, "A Cosmopolitan in a Cafe" in The Four Million, 1903

Frequently consider the connection of all things in the Universe. . . . We should not say ‘I am an Athenian’ or ‘I am a Roman’ but ‘I am a Citizen of the Universe'.”
― Marcus Aurelius, Meditations, 161 to 180 AD

The first person to have said such a thing was Diogenes the Cynic (4th Century BCE). Diogenes Laertius (3rd Century AD) said of Diogenes the Cynic, “When asked where he was from, he said 'I am a world-citizen.'”
― SENTENTIAE ANTIQUAE, JUNE 4, 2016

Oh, we come on the ship
  they call the Mayflower,
We come on the ship
  that sailed the moon,
We come in the age’s
  most uncertain hour,
And sing an American tune.

― Paul Simon, American Tune, 1973

World Trade Center Flag Raising
Thomas E. Franklin, 9/11/2001
The Record (Bergen County, NJ)

Madison Halloween and Fake YouTube Videos

The State Street Halloween Party, renamed Freakfest in 2006, drew crowds of up to 120,000 from several states in 2001 to 2005, with up to 566 arrests.¹ Injuries during the event included anonymous razor cutting of attendees, who only later realized they needed attention.

However, some of the reputation has come from false videos claiming to show Halloween on State Street, like this one:

Someone named "voglbop" posted this to YouTube on August 26, 2014. He titled it "Madison Wisconsin Halloween riot footage", and noted that it was

"Footage of the first Halloween riot at Madison, Wisconsin. At 0:13 Madison art cow statue can be seen. At 0:22 Mendota Police Officer Mike Johnson takes a brick to the head. At 2:20 the University of Minnesota’s students are spotted waving their school's color flag."

No year is mentioned. Some of the comments describe the video: